Buying Time or Building Power? Inside President Hassan Sheikh’s Plan for the Opposition and Regions

The President Is Busy, but to What End? Villa Somalia is forging ahead with its disputed federal-level electoral roadmap. Just a few days ago, the Electoral Commission announced a multi-week registration window for political parties. Shortly prior, the President met with traditional elders representing Jubbaland, Puntland, and Somaliland to promote his vision for a "one-person, one-vote" system, urging them to endorse his platform without pushback. President Hassan Sheikh shows no sign of backing down from his political positions. In addition, he is scheduled to attend inauguration ceremonies in Galmudug and Hirshabelle, signaling plans to formally convene the three regional leaders of Jowhar, Dhusamareeb, and Baidoa by early December 2026. Simultaneously, military maneuvers targeting the Buurhakaba axis and persistent security policy instability remain high on the agenda. There is no indication that the federal government will abandon deploying forces between Buurhakaba and Daynuunay, even after the initial phase of Operation Banooda stalled, Villa Somalia continues to press forward. What Is the Actual Intention of Villa Somalia? Villa Somalia's political and military tactics appear driven by several key objectives: Dividing the Opposition: Two representatives from the presidency informed Mogadishu-based politicians that if the consultative forum is rejected, the country will move toward establishing a parallel governance framework led by Puntland and Jubbaland. They warned that this would compromise Mogadishu's central authority and likely lead to the election of a leader from the President's own clan family—arguing that beyond being a major political setback, it would directly undermine their regional and clan interests. By framing the dispute through a tribal lens, Villa Somalia successfully drove a wedge into the opposition. Securing Acceptance of the President's Invitation: The government is seeking to buy crucial time by extending invitations and rescheduling forum rounds into December. This allows the administration to keep an open line of dialogue without committing to binding political concessions. Leveraging the Security Narrative: Security officials and the presidency are framing the shifts in Southern Somalia, particularly across Hirshabelle, South West State, and the outskirts of Mogadishu, as critical moments driven by the withdrawal of foreign peacekeeping troops and the resurgence of Al-Shabaab. Shifting Geopolitical Blame: Presidential advisors and loyalists continue to highlight external foreign influence in the ongoing crisis, warning that the nation risks complete collapse under terrorist pressure. However, no tangible alternative political roadmap has been introduced to address these structural vulnerabilities. What Is Happening Now? Somalia remains locked in a severe political stalemate. The leadership of Puntland and Jubbaland has rejected Villa Somalia's invitations. In response, Said Deni, President of Puntland, issued a public address calling on the Somali public and political stakeholders to assemble for a nationwide consultation forum. Reports indicate that opposition factions and regional administrations may soon meet independently to determine Somalia's political trajectory. In Mogadishu, political transparency is minimal as internal factions constantly shift alignments. Lacking a unified, long-term political strategy, no immediate resolution is expected in the coming weeks unless one side decisively outmaneuvers the other. Villa Somalia continues to prioritize tactics that stall for time while deflecting blame. However, leadership in Puntland and Jubbaland appears acutely aware of this maneuver; they continue to advocate for a genuine, transparent dialogue framework while expressing skepticism that any proposal originating from Villa Somalia offers a realistic path to compromise. Compounding the political deadlock, Uganda has begun withdrawing 2,000 troops from the Lower Shabelle region, a vital defense perimeter and gateway to the capital. While the Federal Government of Somalia has taken control of these strategic positions, concerns remain high regarding its operational capacity to secure the area. Western partners are increasingly weary of Somalia's chronic political impasse, which has consumed over three decades of international mediation without delivering a durable governance settlement. Analysts warn that the current trajectory in Lower Shabelle risks echoing the security collapse seen in Kabul in August 2021, drawing comparisons to the downfall of Ashraf Ghani, the former Afghan president known for writing on fixing failed states.